Luck is a word often asked in the world of football. And this season, La Liga champions Real Madrid are accused of being lucky. Real Madrid is not the first team to be accused of, nor will it be the last.
Now they are crowned La Liga Champion for the thirty-fifth time, the accusations will be inflated.
Los Blancos They were considered lucky and were often seen as undeserved heroes, and a king unworthy of the crown. Real Madrid have failed to replicate their continental success on the domestic scene, with only three titles in the past decade.
But they were at their best when they beat PSG 3-1 in the Champions League to complete a fantastic comeback. But the 4-0 loss at home to Xavi Barcelona showed Real Madrid’s weakness.
However, their strength continued in the Champions League as they defeated Chelsea 5-4 on aggregate after two impressive matches.
Having lost 2-0 behind Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, they showed their resilience once again by scoring three goals. The match ended 4-3 in favor of City, but the confrontation did not end yet with the return leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.
This was Real Madrid’s scheme in the Champions League. Play breathtaking football and complete the great comeback in close matches.
🍿 Real Madrid 2-3 Chelsea = A #UCL classic!
🤔 The best moment in the Bernabeu?
UEFA Champions League April 15, 2022
However, things were very different in La Liga.
As they entered the match against Espanyol, they topped La Liga by 14 points. Real Madrid dominated La Liga and Carlo Ancelotti Has developed a side that is often heavy on top of its own weight.
They were at the top of the table for most of the season, far ahead of any competitor. Therefore, it was no surprise when they wrapped up the La Liga title after winning/drawing “Put the score here” against the top 13 team in the league.
But the stats tell an entirely different story, which doesn’t paint a pretty picture of them in the league. One says maybe luck is on their side.
But how did Real Madrid escape the league? Was it luck? Or were there other forces at play?
Better than Real Madrid
Let’s start from the basic metrics i.e. expected points, expected goals, allowed expected goals and much more. According to the Data Analytics website Sucrement, Los Blancos He is expected to score 55.48 points after 29 matches. Instead, they had 66 points.
And although there was a small gap between the projected and actual goals, the team struggled with the goal conversion rate.
However, La Liga was a mostly one-horse race, with Atletico and Barcelona falling behind. Real Madrid also did not receive many challenges from the rest of the league.
And the numbers prove it. Despite being the first team in goals, shots, shots on goal and shooting accuracy, it was one of the worst performing teams in a single division. The reinforcement disturbance ratio, or BDP as it is generally known, measures the effect of a team’s pressure on the opponent’s side passing. So, for example, if a team is playing with an intense high pressure system, it will cause the opposing team to score fewer passes due to high pressure.
Real Madrid performed poorly on this metric. Their BDP rating is 3.03 below zero, the fifth worst rating in the top five leagues. However, it is an astonishing number because the top teams in other leagues are usually one of the highest pressure teams.
A lower BDP usually means that teams play mostly over the counter. However, another measure shows that this is not the case.
Field mileage is a concept for measuring the share of possession a team has in the game but only in terms of touches or passes in the attacking third – a useful measure of how well a team can take the offensive initiative in the game, rather than just holding possession for it.
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In this case, Real Madrid has a field tilt of 64.88 percent, the second best player in La Liga and seventh best player in the top five leagues.
Therefore, despite not pressing their opponents for the ball, the team dominates the opponent in its half.
This indicates a general lack of quality in La Liga teams that failed to take the game to Real Madrid.
Super Cream Benzema
If Real Madrid outperform, it is up to their superb striker Karim Benzema. The Frenchman is spending the best season of his career with Real Madrid. And the Frenchman himself performs far more than his statistics suggest. Almost at the level of genius Messi.
– FootTheBall FC (FootTheBallFC) April 27 2022
to me football , Benzema was expected to score 15.23 goals after 29 matches. Instead, he scored 22 goals, 6.77 more than expected. This excessive performance is the third best among the top five to score in the first five tournaments. Only Patrick Schick and Dusan Vlahovic were better than him.
His over-performance continues in the help department, too. After 29 games, Benzema was expected to provide 5.52 assists but made 11. This positive difference of 5.48 is the third-best player in all of the top five leagues behind Thomas Muller and La Liga high performer Oscar Trejo.
That’s a huge reason because Real Madrid were putting pressure on their weight.
Did Real Madrid deserve the La Liga title?
Well, the data shows that Barcelona, despite their struggles, was a better team than Real Madrid. They have a better score than Madrid. They also have a Permissible Defensive Action Permit (PPDA) of 8.74, which is the best in the top five leagues. This means that they do not put pressure on the team, which was shown in the Clasico. Barcelona’s high pressure pressure stifled Real Madrid as they were beaten 4-0 in the backyard.
to me Understat, Madrid had an xG of 0.63 compared to 4.26 for Barcelona.
This match showed Real Madrid’s weakness, highlighting the impact of Karim Benzema, who missed the match.
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However, their early season struggles left them 12 points behind Real Madrid, albeit with a game in hand and by that time it was already too late.
Therefore, he helped Real Madrid achieve the title even more by completely lacking an opponent who scored consistent points.
Their loss to Barcelona gave the team the responsibility to put pressure on them and make the defense make mistakes.
So Real Madrid were lucky, but they got the most points in the bag, which is the most important thing at the end of the day.